Could Donald Trump go to prison if convicted?

The stakes are very high in Donald Trump’s hush money trial in New York – where a jury will soon begin considering the former president’s case.

As Trump’s lawyers make their closing arguments in a Manhattan courtroom on Tuesday, they will have one eye on how the outcome of the trial could affect their client’s chances in the November presidential election.

In a number of polls, significant numbers of Republicans have indicated that they will not vote for Trump if he is convicted of a crime.

Finding Trump guilty also requires considering the personal costs.

The 77-year-old, who is already liable for half a billion dollars due to a series of civil losses, may face another large fine. A prison sentence is also possible, although unlikely.

The hush money case is one of four indictments against Trump. Served consecutively, the potential sentences would mean hundreds of years in prison.

But how likely is it that Trump will be convicted? Can he campaign or take office if he’s behind bars? And will he become the first US president to serve time in prison?

New York

In the Manhattan case, Donald Trump was charged with 34 counts of falsifying business records – allegedly to conceal hidden cash payments to adult film star Stormy Daniels, with whom he allegedly had an affair.

Prosecutors say the then-Republican candidate intended to “rig” the 2016 election results by concealing a damaging history in violation of state and federal campaign finance laws.

Michael Cohen, Trump’s “fixer,” is said to have paid Stormy Daniels $130,000 to cover up the story of their alleged relationship, and his boss later gave him the money back.

Falsifying business records is usually considered a misdemeanor in New York, but Trump was instead controversially charged with a Class E felony, which carries a maximum penalty of four years in prison.

John C Coffee of Columbia Law School predicted there was a good chance a New York jury would find the former president guilty, noting the high penalties imposed on him in fraud and defamation cases.

However, he downplayed the likelihood that Trump would serve time in prison, noting that he is 77 years old and has never had a criminal record.

“While it is conceivable that a judge – especially one whom Trump regularly insulted – would impose a prison sentence to underscore culpability for Trump’s behavior, the bet is not prison but a heavy fine and a suspended sentence,” said Prof. Coffee told The Telegraph.

There is another possibility. Juan Merchan, the judge presiding over the case, has signaled he could send Trump to prison if he continues to violate an order of silence designed to protect witnesses, jurors and court staff.

The former president was found in contempt of court for violating the order nine times.

Washington

Trump also faces four criminal charges in connection with the events leading up to the storming of the Capitol on January 6, 2021. Most legal commentators see this as the most serious case against the former president.

According to the 45-page indictment filed by special counsel Jack Smith, Trump tried to make up for his election losses by pressuring officials in key states to stockpile “sham electors” to ignore the popular vote and by pressing the Justice Department to investigate “fictitious” investigations.

He faces two charges: obstructing an official proceeding – which could mean up to 20 years in prison – as well as conspiracy to suppress voting rights and defrauding the United States, which could mean up to 10 years in prison each.

Smith signaled he was seeking a “speedy trial,” but his hopes were dashed when it was stayed as lawyers acting on Trump’s behalf argued that, as a former president, Trump was immune from prosecution.

The arguments were briefly discussed by Tanya Chutkan, the D.C. district judge presiding over Trump’s trial, and the appeals court.

However, the case went to the Supreme Court, where three judges disagreed with the lower courts’ ruling and signaled that they might reject it.

This risks delaying the case beyond the November presidential election, and if Trump takes office, he could theoretically have the charges against him dismissed.

Professor Coffee believes delays in the January 6 trial and other cases mean the New York case is “the only game in town.”

“The Supreme Court’s argument suggests that the January 6 case will be sent back to a lower court and therefore the New York case will be the only ruling before the elections,” he said.

“If Trump wins the election, he will be able to waive other federal lawsuits and possibly the Georgia case as well.”

In April, conservative Supreme Court justices showed skepticism about the use of an obstruction charge in an appeal brought by a Jan. 6 rioter.

Some seemed inclined to agree that the law introduced after the Enron accounting scandal applied too broadly to Congress’ certification of Joe Biden’s election victory.

Not only could her decision mean hundreds of appeals from rioters, but it also accounts for half of the charges against Trump in the January 6 case. Some commentators believe this will create another obstacle to the proceedings.

Georgia

Fani Willis, the Fulton County district attorney who brought the case against Trump in Georgia, has made no secret of the fact that she hopes to see the Republican behind bars.

“We have a long road ahead of us,” she wrote in an email to defense attorneys in November 2023. “Long after these men are in prison, we will continue to practice law.”

The road ahead will be longer than she expected.

Trump faces 13 racketeering charges in connection with his alleged attempt to overturn the 2020 election results in Georgia under the Rico (Fraud Influenced and Corrupt Organizations) Act.

This law was intended to dismantle America’s crime families and, ironically, was used to great effect by one of Trump’s co-defendants, Rudy Giuliani, against five crime families in New York in the 1980s.

In a phone call with Brad Raffensperger, Georgia’s Republican secretary of state, Trump appeared to implore him to “find” the thousands of votes to win the key state. If convicted, he faces 20 years in prison.

Ms Willis proposed that the trial start by August 5, expecting it would take “many months” to reach a verdict.

However, further issues arose in the case, leaving the proceedings in abeyance and the date seeming increasingly uncertain.

A key issue concerns Ms. Willis’ relationship with Nathan Wade, whom she entrusted with leading the prosecution of the former president.

Trump and other defendants argued that she paid him handsomely to take on the case and then personally benefited by paying them for a luxury vacation. Ms Willis denied inappropriate behavior and claimed she had refunded Mr Wade’s money.

Judge Scott McAfee ultimately ruled that Ms Willis could continue prosecuting, but only if her former partner withdrew from the team. The case is on hold while the Georgia Court of Appeals considers whether to hear Trump’s appeal of the decision.

Judge McAfee also dismissed three of the initial charges against Trump, saying they did not provide enough details for the students to defend themselves.

Even if the presumptive Republican presidential nominee takes office, he will not be able to dismiss the trial because it is a state matter.

But some believe he could order the Justice Department to appeal the ruling. The departments’ opinions show that a sitting president cannot be imprisoned.

Steve Sadow, acting on Trump’s behalf, argued in court that a potential trial would have to be postponed until 2029 if his client wins the presidential election, citing the federal supremacy clause in the Constitution.

Florida

The stakes are high for Trump in Florida. He faces 40 felony charges related to improperly handling secret documents at his Mar-a-Lago resort, which carries a maximum sentence of five to 20 years each.

But that may not matter if Donald Trump manages to make it to the November presidential election before a trial can take place. If he comes back into office, he can throw him out because it’s a federal matter.

The indictment accused Trump of removing state secrets from the White House and accidentally storing them at his Florida resort.

Some of the documents were supposed to be in the ballroom and even in the shower and contain information about the nuclear programs and defense capabilities of the United States and its allies.

Special prosecutor Jack Smith appears frustrated with the pace of the Florida case and pleaded with Judge Aileen Cannon to speed things up.

He accused Trump’s legal team of trying to use the Stormy Daniels trial in New York to delay the classified documents case as long as possible.

The trial was originally scheduled to start on May 20, but as the weeks passed that became less and less likely. Judge Cannon heard arguments about setting a trial date in March, but has not yet clarified when that will be.

Prosecutors have instead suggested starting July 8, while Trump’s lawyers say it should start after the November election. However, they also indicated August as a possibility.

Commentators now wonder if, let alone when, the case will go to court.

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