Hurricane Beryl is approaching the Caribbean

Early Tropical Storm Beryl has strengthened into a hurricane, which is forecast to be dangerous and is heading towards the Caribbean as World Cup Twenty20 cricket fans prepare for it.

Beryl is the second named storm in what is expected to be an extremely busy hurricane season, and forecasters predict the area could see up to 25 named storms this season, almost twice the average number.

Heading toward the southeastern Caribbean, Tropical Storm Beryl strengthened into a hurricane on Saturday (local time), with forecasters warning it will become a dangerous major storm before it reaches Barbados late Sunday or early Monday.

A major hurricane is considered a Category 3 or higher hurricane with sustained winds of at least 178 km/h (110 mph). As of Saturday afternoon, Beryl was a Category 1 hurricane.

How serious is Beryl to those who stand in his way?

“We must be ready,” Barbados Prime Minister Mia Mottley said in a public statement late Friday. “You and I know that when things like this happen, it’s better to plan for the worst and pray for the best.”

She noted that thousands of people came to Barbados for the Twenty20 World Cup cricket final, which saw India defeat South Africa in the capital Bridgetown on Saturday.

Some fans, like Shashank Musku, a 33-year-old doctor living in Pittsburgh, rushed to change flights to get out before the storm.

Musku said by phone that he has never experienced a hurricane: “I have no intention of being in one either.”

He and his wife, an India supporter, found out about Beryl thanks to a taxi driver who mentioned the storm.

Saint Vincent and the Grenadines Prime Minister Ralph Gonsalves said in a public address Saturday that shelters would open Sunday evening and urged people to prepare. He ordered officials to refuel government vehicles and asked grocery stores and gas stations to stay open late ahead of the storm.

“There will be such a rush … if you keep to the specified times,” he said, apologizing in advance for government interference with radio stations reporting storm updates. “Cricket lovers must bear that we will have to convey information… it is life and death.”

Beryl is the second named storm in what is expected to be a busy Atlantic hurricane season, which runs from June 1 to November 30. Earlier this month, Tropical Storm Alberto came ashore in northeastern Mexico with heavy rains that killed four people.

Lowry noted that in the 1851 record, only five named storms formed in June in the tropical Atlantic east of the Caribbean, and only one of them was a hurricane. He said one of those was the first hurricane in 1933, which was the most active hurricane season on record.

Mark Spence, a hostel manager in Barbados, said by phone that he was calm about the coming storm.

“It’s the time of year. A storm could come at any time,” he said. “I’m always prepared. I always have enough food at home.”

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration predicts the 2024 hurricane season will likely be well above average, with 17 to 25 named storms. The forecast calls for up to 13 hurricanes and four major hurricanes.

During the Atlantic hurricane season, there are an average of 14 named storms, of which seven are hurricanes and three are severe hurricanes.

Up to 15 centimetres of rain was expected to fall in Barbados and the nearby Beryl Islands, prompting a warning of high waves of up to four metres. Severe storm surges of up to 2 metres were also forecast.

What path might Beryl take?

Beryl’s centre was forecast to be about 45 kilometres (28 miles) south of Barbados, said the island’s meteorological service director, Sabu Best.

Forecasters expected the storm to cross the Caribbean and head toward Jamaica and eventually Mexico.

As of late Saturday afternoon, Beryl was located approximately 1,160 km east-southeast of Barbados, with maximum sustained wind speeds of 120 km/h. It was moving west at a speed of 35 km/h.

“Rapid strengthening is currently forecast,” said the U.S. National Hurricane Center based in Miami.

Atmospheric scientist Tomer Burg noted that Beryl was simply a tropical depression that had sustained winds of 56 km/h on Friday.

“This means that according to preliminary data, Beryl met the criteria for rapid intensification before it even became a hurricane,” X wrote on the social media platform.

Warm waters fed Beryl, and ocean heat content in the deep Atlantic was the highest on record for this time of year, according to Brian McNoldy, a tropical meteorology researcher at the University of Miami.

Beryl is also the strongest June tropical storm ever recorded in the far eastern tropical Atlantic, according to Philip Klotzbach, a hurricane researcher at Colorado State University.

An unusual early hurricane

This is the easternmost place a tropical Atlantic hurricane has formed in June, Klotzbach said, breaking the record set in 1933.

A hurricane warning was issued for Barbados, and a hurricane warning was in effect for Saint Lucia, Grenada and Saint Vincent and the Grenadines. A tropical storm warning has been issued for Martinique, Dominica and Tobago.

“It is astonishing to see a major (Category 3+) hurricane forecast in June anywhere in the Atlantic, let alone this far east in the deep tropics. #Beryl organizes in rush over warmest waters ever recorded in late June” Florida hurricane expert Michael Lowry posted on the X social media platform.

Beryl adds to other severe weather events in the area

The storm is approaching the southeastern Caribbean just days after the twin islands of Trinidad and Tobago experienced severe flooding in the capital, Port-of-Spain, in an unrelated weather event.

Caribbean leaders are concerned not only about Beryl but also about a group of storms that will emerge just behind it and that have a 70 percent chance of becoming a tropical depression by the middle of next week.

Meanwhile, an unknown storm in early June this year dumped more than 50 centimeters of rain on parts of South Florida, stranding many drivers on flooded streets and pushing water into some homes in low-lying areas.

– AP