Labor numbers rise on Newspoll as Australians staunchly oppose Coalition nuclear plan

The national information poll, conducted between 24 and 28 June among a sample of 1,260 people, gave Labor a 51-49% lead over the Coalition, a one-point gain for Labor since the previous poll three weeks ago. Basic votes are 36% Coalition (down three), 32% Labor (down one), 13% Greens (up two), 7% One Nation (flat) and 12% all else (up two). .

Newspoll uses preference flows in 2022 to calculate estimates for both parties. Using a rounded primary would normally give Labor a 52-48% advantage, so rounding probably favored the Coalition in this poll.

On Prime Minister Anthony Albanese, 53% were dissatisfied (up three points) and 42% were happy (down one point), giving a net approval of -11, down four points. This is the lowest Albanese net approval since -13 in November 2023, after the Voice referendum. The graph below shows Newspoll data on Albanese net approval (plus signs) for this term with a fitted smoothed line.

However, opposition leader Peter Dutton’s net approval rating fell six points to -16, the lowest since October 2023. Albanese overtook Dutton by an unchanged 46-38% as the better prime minister.

45-42% of voters disagreed with “the Coalition’s plans to build nuclear reactors in Australia at seven current and former coal-fired power station sites by 2050.”

The controversy over nuclear plans has likely strengthened Labor in two-party terms, despite persistent cost of living pressures hurting Albanese’s ratings.

Take the nuclear energy survey

In a nationwide Resolve poll for Nine newspapers, conducted after the announcement of Dutton’s nuclear plan (June 20–23) among a sample of 1,003 people, 41–37% of voters supported nuclear energy. In a more open-ended question, 32% (down four votes from February) said they supported nuclear power, 28% were opposed (up five votes), and 30% (up three votes) were undecided but were open to exploring this issue.

Renewable energy sources received an overall likeability rating of +66, nuclear power +8 and coal power +2.

Asked to choose between “Labour’s plan to use 100% renewable energy (with gas support over the next decade or two)” and “the Coalition’s plan to use nuclear power and some gas to support renewable energy”, voters supported Labour’s plan by a margin votes 43–33%.

Essential polling: Labor’s first lead since April

The national Essential poll, conducted between 12 and 16 June and polling 1,181 people, gave Labour a lead of 48-46 per cent including undecideds, after a 48-48 per cent tie in early June.

It is Labour’s first lead in the Essential poll since April, partly due to a weak showing by Labour’s preference among respondents.

The main votes in this poll are 32% Coalition (down four), 31% Labor (down one), 13% Greens (flat), 8% One Nation (up three), 1% UAP (down two), 9% in favor of all others (up by one) and 6% undecided (up by two).

On Australia’s emissions targets, 52% thought we should stick to our 2030 target, while 48% thought we should abandon it because it is unattainable and damaging the economy. 36–31% of voters opposed Dutton’s decision to oppose Australia’s 2030 target.

Regarding Israel’s military actions in Gaza, 38% (up six points from April) said Israel should permanently withdraw, 21% (up two points) said it should agree to a temporary ceasefire, and 15% (down four points) said Israeli military action was justified.

Regarding the Australian government’s response to the war between Israel and Gaza, 52% of respondents were satisfied, 32% saw it as too supportive of Israel and 16% saw it as too harsh towards Israel.

56-22% of voters favored regulating vapes so that they are available only in pharmacies with a prescription, up from 58-20% in March. Negative attitudes toward vaporizers have intensified since March.

Morgan poll: 51-49% for Labour

Morgan’s national poll, conducted June 10-16 among a sample of 1,724 people, showed Labor and the Coalition tied at 50-50%, an increase of 3.5 points for the Coalition compared to the June 2-9 poll, which he was pro-Labor. outlier.

In the Morgan poll, conducted between 17 and 23 June among a sample of 1,696 people, Labor gained a lead of 51-49%.

The core vote was 37% Coalition (down one from 10–16 June), 31.5% Labor (up two), 13% Greens (down 0.5), 6% One Nation (down one), 8.5% independents (constant) and 4% other (down 1.5).

Additional questions regarding the solution

I previously reported on the national Resolve poll for Nine Newspapers, which gave Dutton the first preferred prime minister position among all pollsters.

In follow-up questions, 41% of respondents (down four from August 2023 and down ten from October 2021) said that climate change is a serious problem and we should take action now, even if it involves significant costs.

32% believed that climate change is gradual (up three points from August 2023 and five points from October 2021) and can therefore be tackled by taking small steps over time, while 18% (up two and six points) said that “until we are certain that climate change is a real problem, we should only consider actions that do not involve significant costs.”

Regarding the 43% emission reduction target by 2030, 52% either supported it or wanted a more ambitious target, while 30% were in favor of reducing the target or rejecting it altogether.

Voters were asked what forms of protest they considered legitimate. The forms of protest with the greatest support were holding a rally in a park or in front of parliament (53%) and marching in the streets (41%). Other forms of protest, which included disrupting public order or a member of parliament, received less than 15% support.

---

Read more: Dutton takes preferred PM lead in Resolve poll after redistricting ends

---

NSW Resolve poll: Labor still leading after election

The New South Wales state Resolve poll for The Sydney Morning Herald, conducted alongside the May and June federal Resolve polls of 1,000 people, gave the Coalition 35% of the primary vote (down one from April), Labor 32% (down one ), Greens 11% (one down), independents 15% (one up) and others 7% (two up).

Resolve did not provide a two-party estimate, but The Poll Bludger estimated Labor would have a lead of 52-48 per cent based on vote flows at the 2023 state election, a slightly better result for Labor than a recent poll in Redbridge, New South Wales, which gave it a lead of just 50.5-49.5 per cent.

Incumbent Labor MP Chris Minns overtook Liberal Party’s Mark Speakman by 38-13% to become preferred Prime Minister (compared to 37-16% in April).

Voters also learned that the Labor government recently announced plans to encourage the construction of denser housing, such as apartment blocks, near 37 train stations, and the Liberals oppose the policy. 50–31% of voters supported this policy.

The New South Wales by-election was held in the Northern Tablelands on 22 June, with Labor not participating. The Nationals won a 68.0% majority vote (down 4.2% since the 2023 state election), the Shooters 11.4% (up 7.9%), the Greens 9.1% (up 4.5%) and two independents a combined 11.6%; in 2023, Labor won 10.2%.

The Electoral Commission has selected the Nationals and Greens as the final two candidates in a Nationals vs. Shooters contest. The Nationals will win very easily.