Rishi Sunak, the former star of the Indian diaspora in the UK, risks electoral reprisals

Rishi Sunakonce a model for BritainThe Indian diaspora now faces growing discontent over rising living costs and economic stagnation, further damaging its prospects in the country’s general elections on Thursday.

For more than 18 months, the opposition Labour Party has held a lead of more than 20 points in the polls, with Britons tired of the Conservative Party’s rule. Polls last month even predicted that Sunak could lose his seat in the general election.

The Indian diaspora makes up around 2.5% of the British population, meaning their disenchantment with Sunak and his Conservatives could prove significant.

“A lot of issues are coming to light and there is an anti-conservative sentiment among the diaspora as a whole. People are saying maybe it is time to form a new government,” said Ashwin Krishnaswamy, a British tech investor and trustee of the charity Bridge India.

A man makes his way through the food aisle of a supermarket in west London last month. Rising living costs have fuelled anti-Tory sentiment. Photo: AFP

Rising costs of living and disappointing economic growth have contributed to this perception, Krishnaswamy said, adding that conservatives “are under pressure from both sides because they have not increased wealth creation.”

This pessimistic sentiment contributed to the defeat of Sunak’s Conservatives in local elections in May. The Conservatives lost control of 10 local councils and more than 470 council seats, as well as handing over 10 police and crime commissioners to Labour.

Since announcing a snap election about a month ago, Sunak’s election campaign, which has largely focused on promises to repair the economy and public services such as the National Health Service (NHS), has not gained much traction.

“Sunak’s campaign was forward-looking. But in the past, the Conservative Party has had so many leadership changes that people wonder what guarantees you will stay in power,” said Priyajit Debsarkar, an Indian author based in London.

Sunak, the UK’s first prime minister of Asian origin, holds the post and has been leader of the Conservative Party since 2022. He previously held two cabinet posts under Boris Johnson from 2020 to 2022.

“The diaspora had reason to rejoice when Rishi took over at 10 Downing Street. The euphoria has faded due to the failure to deliver on basic promises like reducing the cost of living and the crisis in the national health system,” Debsarkar said.

Since late 2021, the prices of many essential goods in the UK have been rising faster than household incomes, leading to a fall in real incomes. This has been dubbed the ‘cost of living crisis’.

Sunak meets the public at an event in London on Saturday. Photo: Pool via AP

The Economic Enigma

Born to parents of Indian origin who immigrated to Britain from East Africa in the 1960s, Sunak earned a master’s degree in business administration from Stanford University and worked for Goldman Sachs and later as a partner in hedge fund firms Children’s Investment Fund and Theleme Partners.

He was elected to the House of Commons for Richmond in North Yorkshire at the 2015 general election and supported the Brexit election campaign for the 2016 referendum on the country’s membership in the European Union.

Sunak was expected to help address the UK’s economic woes since the country left the EU in January 2020. But gross domestic product is estimated to have grown by just 0.1% last year, after growing by 4.3% in 2022, according to the Office for National Statistics.

Public opinion has also deteriorated over the state of infrastructure such as health services, which suffer from chronic underinvestment, leading to frequent protests by doctors over pay disputes since last year.

“The NHS is a complete disaster. There is a huge disparity in pay between different groups of doctors within the NHS,” Krishnaswamy said of the reasons for the loss of trust.

Labour traditionally enjoyed a stronger base of support among British Indians, but it has weakened over the years as a new generation of wealthier and better-educated diasporas have emerged, identifying more with the Conservatives, a trend that was only set to accelerate under Sunak.

“However, a lot of water has now flowed between the Thames and the English Channel, so much so that even the Indian diaspora has changed its mind,” Debsarkar said.

Labour Party leader Keir Starmer at a rally in central London on Saturday, as part of the campaign for the July 4 general election. Photo: PA via AP

Labour leader Keir Starmer has successfully presented his party as a stable government in waiting, which has resonated with voters struggling with rising living costs.

“House rents are 100% higher than they were six or seven years ago,” said Supriyo Chaudhuri, CEO of e1133 Ltd, a higher education company, noting that it was difficult for new immigrants to Britain to buy a house. “If you are a new immigrant, you cannot afford to buy a house.”

Chaudhuri, who has lived in the UK for a decade, said Sunak “doesn’t talk about public services and the cost of living crisis” and has also failed to create business momentum.

If Labour overthrows the Conservatives, they too “will have to find a new strategy” to solve the problems, he said.

Cedomir Nestorovic, professor of geopolitics at ESSEC Business School Asia-Pacific in Singapore, believes the key to attracting voters would be to solve the economic conundrum.

Businesses must be given the opportunity to create a ripple effect in terms of jobs and wages, which has not happened under Sunak, he said.