How did the Iran elections come down to an ideological battle? -Firstpost

Iran is holding its presidential election runoff on Friday (July 5). The snap election competition has come down to an ideological battle, with reformist Masoud Pezeshkian and ultraconservative Saeed Jalili being the last two men standing.

The polarisation caused by the high number of hardliner conservative candidates, Iran’s economic troubles, and a combination of frustration and disenchantment among the public following the 2022 protests, have all led to the election coming down to this battle of reformists versus conservatives.

We explain these factors and how they shaped the choices for the run-off contest in detail.

The choice of candidates

Initially, six candidates were approved by Iran’s Guardian Council. Among them, Masoud Pezeshkian stood as the sole reformist, with the remaining five being hardline conservatives. The dynamics shifted when two conservative candidates withdrew just days before the polls, consolidating the votes of moderates, centrists, and reformists around Pezeshkian. He emerged as the front-runner in the first round, securing approximately 42 per cent of the votes.

In Iran, a runoff election is mandated if no candidate achieves over 50 per cent of the votes in the initial round.

In a way, there were going to be only two possible combinations (ideologically, that is) in a run-off: Reformist Pezeshkian against some conservative, or a conservative against another conservative.

What solidified the Reformist versus Conservative match-up, however, were a bunch of economic and political issues that have frustrated the citizenry.

Iran’s economic troubles

Iran’s economy is grappling with severe difficulties, compounded by international sanctions and internal mismanagement. The World Bank reports an inflation rate of 37.5 per cent for 2024, eroding the purchasing power of ordinary Iranians and stoking public dissatisfaction.

The economic distress has intensified scrutiny of Iran’s foreign relations, particularly its nuclear deal with the West.

The 2015 nuclear accord, which promised economic relief in exchange for curbing Iran’s nuclear program, has been in limbo since the US withdrawal in 2018 under President Donald Trump. The resulting sanctions have hampered oil exports and fueled inflation, contributing to the country’s economic malaise.

• The reformist perspective: Masoud Pezeshkian, 69, has advocated for a return to the nuclear accord, aiming to rebuild “constructive relations” with Washington and European nations to lift Iran from its economic isolation. He has promised tax rebates to most Iranians but dismissed Jalili’s promise to reduce inflation to single digits as unrealistic under current conditions.To bolster his economic credibility, Pezeshkian has enlisted Ali Tayebnia, the former economy minister credited with reducing inflation to single digits during Hassan Rouhani’s presidency.

• The conservative perspective: Saeed Jalili, 58, renowned for his staunch anti-West stance, opposes the 2015 nuclear deal, asserting that Tehran does not need it to progress. His economic platform includes promises to swiftly reduce inflation, though he has provided no concrete details on how he plans to achieve this.

The Mahsa Amini protests of 2022

The 2022 death of Mahsa Amini in police custody ignited widespread protests against the government’s strict dress codes and broader social repression. The harsh crackdown on these protests has further alienated many Iranians from the political system.

• The reformist perspective: Pezeshkian has criticized the government’s response to the protests, advocating for less stringent enforcement of the hijab law and other social regulations. He has also taken a more liberal stance on internet restrictions.

• The conservative perspective: Jalili, aligning with his hardline conservative roots, has not condemned the repression of the protests and supports strict dress codes for women.

Is Pezeshkian the frontrunner?

Although Pezeshkian led in the first round, his victory in the runoff is far from assured. The conservative parliament speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, who finished third with 13 per cent voteshare, along with other failed conservative candidates, have thrown their support behind Jalili.

Conversely, Mostafa Pourmohammadi, a conservative who surprised observers with his reformist takes, has tacitly endorsed Pezeshkian despite securing less than 1 per cent of the vote.

Pezeshkian’s prospects hinge on mobilizing a higher turnout among centrists and reformists. However, the reformist camp’s disillusionment with the political system and the fear of a hardline Jalili presidency will significantly influence voter participation.

Sanam Vakil, director of the Middle East and North Africa program at Chatham House, told Al-Jazeera that a victory for Pezeshkian with limited voter support would undermine his mandate, echoing the fate of previous reform-minded presidents terms ended in public disappointment.

Regardless of the election outcome, Iran’s next president will operate under the overarching authority of the supreme leader, who dictates state policy.

With inputs from agencies